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GOP Convention Strategies

Convention Countdown

All Aboard: Captain Reviews the Contested Convention PDF Print E-mail
Written by Nicole Russell   
Tuesday, 18 December 2007 23:17

Captains Quarters jumps on board with those speculating about a brokered convention. But he's not as excited as I am at the possibility:

Republican primary voters have sent a very clear message: they have not found their candidate. After a remarkable full-year, full-court press, the top five candidates remain bunched together closely enough to have a serious shot at winning at least one of the early states. No one has broken out of the pack on either a national or state-to-state basis, and all of them have serious obstacles to uniting the conservative coalition, fair or unfair.

What happens if Huckabee wins Iowa, McCain wins or comes close in New Hampshire, Romney wins South Carolina, and Rudy can't close the deal in Florida? The other large states would normally take cues from early momentum, but instead, they will have no clear bandwagon on which to jump. [Snip]

In other words, absent some magic momentum in the next two weeks, this could be a giant mess. The Republicans do not have an Establishment presence in superdelegates as the Democrats have; the RNC cannot impose its will. So then what? The Republicans will have to continue the same campaign for another seven months, until the convention in Minneapolis in the first week of September. It makes for high drama, but almost certainly for disunity and wasted effort -- and a huge head start for the Democrats.

Like I've said before, a contested convention may be a journalists dream, but it may also prove to be nightmarish, not just for the presidential campaign managers or convention organizers, but for politicos who want a Republican in office.